Reflections on Recent U.S. Sanctions

Reflections on Recent U.S. Sanctions  

by Paolo Falconio  

Member of the Honorary Governing Council and lecturer at the Society of International Studies (SEI)

When geopolitics is reduced to mere front-page news or stripped of rigorous and contextualized analysis, it risks becoming a distorted lens rather than a tool for interpreting reality.

From this perspective, it is necessary to reflect on the sanctions recently adopted by the United States against the Russian energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft, as well as on China’s statement regarding the cessation of Russian oil supplies by sea (not all of them).

The actual scope of these measures remains uncertain for now. Although crude oil prices have seen a significant increase—not only for Brent or WTI, but also for Russian Urals—the dynamics of energy supply are more complex than they might appear. China, in fact, does not rely solely on maritime imports but also receives Russian oil through pipelines crossing Kazakhstan, whose volumes, according to various observers, are expected to rise. It is worth noting that U.S. sanctions apply exclusively to maritime shipments, leaving pipeline flows untouched.

The structural impact of these measures on Russia’s energy system will largely depend on India’s stance. Only a potential decision by New Delhi to halt Russian oil imports could produce a truly significant effect, which might be quantified as a 10% contraction in Russia’s GDP. At present, there is a statement to this effect from President Trump dated October 16, which was promptly denied by Indian and Russian authorities.

In the absence of a significant drop in export volumes, there is a risk that the Russian Federation, while reducing the quantities sold, could benefit from increased revenues due to rising prices—except in the case of long-term contracts.

It remains to be seen whether India will decide to revise its energy agreement with Moscow. Meanwhile, the surge in crude oil prices following the announcement of sanctions takes on strategic relevance for the U.S. oil sector, particularly for shale oil production. These are obtained through hydraulic fracturing and are economically viable only above the threshold of $61 per barrel.

Looking ahead, these sanctions are part of a broader reconfiguration of global energy alliances, where regulatory pressure intersects with market logic and supply diversification strategies. A critical observation of these dynamics requires not only attention to data but also a multilayered reading of national postures, infrastructural interdependencies, and the diplomatic rhetoric that accompanies them.