Venezuela, the United States, and Oil: Global Governance and the Geopolitical Nexus

Venezuela, the United States and Oil: Global Governance and Geopolitical Nexus

By Paolo Falconio –

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela cannot be interpreted through a reductionist lens focused exclusively on the energy dimension. Although oil represents a significant element in Washington’s strategic projection, it does not constitute—at least in the initial phase—the primary cause of the military action. The triggering factor must instead be identified in the progressive transformation of Venezuela, under the presidency of Nicolás Maduro, into a Sino‑Russian geopolitical hub in the Western Hemisphere, with a structured presence of state and para‑state actors from Beijing and Moscow¹. This configuration represented a direct violation of the traditional U.S. security doctrine, which considers Latin America a privileged and non‑negotiable sphere of influence².

If the immediate cause of the intervention is therefore geopolitical in nature, the oil dimension assumes a decisive role in the subsequent phase, namely in defining the scenarios of the “post‑Maduro” period and in assessing a potential long‑term strategic presence of the United States in the country.

At present, it is very difficult to make predictions, but one may theorize that the U.S. will remain at least long enough to secure extraction sites. Venezuela holds the world’s largest reserves of heavy crude³, a resource of specific importance for the U.S. energy industry. Although the United States is today one of the world’s leading producers and has achieved a high level of self‑sufficiency, it predominantly extracts light crude⁴. U.S. refineries, however, have historically been configured to process heavy crude, which ensures greater efficiency in the production of fuels and derivatives⁵.

The centrality of oil in U.S. economic policy is further amplified by the financialized structure of the American economy. Fluctuations in crude prices produce immediate systemic effects, impacting market stability and the competitiveness of the shale oil sector, which is economically sustainable only if the price of a barrel does not remain consistently below the 60–61 dollar threshold⁶. It follows that global oil governance is not an accessory element but a determining factor for U.S. economic security. From this perspective, it is difficult to imagine an effective regulatory framework that excludes Russia, one of the world’s main producers, and that does not take into account the dynamics of the OPEC+ axis⁷.

A potential realignment of Venezuela—regardless of the formal government—with the United States would have significant implications for international energy balances. A structured U.S. presence in the country, at least in the oil sector, would allow Washington to directly influence the dynamics between OPEC and non‑OPEC actors, transforming Caracas from an ideologically oriented player into a functional lever for market stabilization. A Venezuela integrated into U.S. energy strategy could modulate its production according to price objectives, helping to reduce the weight of the OPEC+ axis and to keep crude at levels compatible with the sustainability of American shale oil⁸.

In conclusion, the oil dimension does not explain the origin of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, but it does clarify its strategic depth and long‑term logic. Control of the energy factor—in its qualitative, industrial and regulatory components—makes the “post‑Maduro” phase a crucial step not only for Venezuelan stability but for the balance of the global market as a whole. A Venezuela realigned with the United States would not simply be a resource supplier, but a systemic variable capable of influencing global oil governance and strengthening the U.S. position in a confrontation that, far from being exclusively energy‑related, is fully geopolitical.

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Notes

1. S. Ellner, The Pink Tide Experiences: The Limits of Left-Wing Politics in Latin America, Rowman & Littlefield, 2019.  

2. R. Munck, Rethinking Latin America: Development, Hegemony, and Social Transformation, Palgrave Macmillan, 2020.  

3. BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2023.  

4. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Crude Oil Production and Quality Report, 2022.  

5. D. Yergin, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations, Penguin Press, 2020.  

6. International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook, 2023.  

7. T. Mitrova & K. Yermakov, “Russia’s Energy Strategy in the Global Market”, Energy Policy, vol. 147, 2020.  

8. A. Goldthau & B. Sovacool, Energy Security, Governance and the Global Energy Challenge, Routledge, 2012.

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Annotated Bibliography

1. Energy and Global Geopolitics

- Daniel Yergin, The New Map  

  A fundamental work for understanding the transformation of global energy balances and the role of the United States as an energy power. It offers an interpretive framework useful for situating the Venezuelan case within a broader dynamic.

- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook  

  An essential technical source for data on production, demand and the economic sustainability of shale oil.

2. Latin America and International Relations

- Steve Ellner, The Pink Tide Experiences  

  A critical analysis of Latin America’s progressive governments, with particular attention to Venezuela and its extra‑regional alliances.

- Ronaldo Munck, Rethinking Latin America  

  Explores the relationship between U.S. hegemony and Latin American political transformations, useful for contextualizing Washington’s “red line”.

3. Russia, China and Energy Governance

- Tatiana Mitrova & Kirill Yermakov, “Russia’s Energy Strategy…”  

  An academic study clarifying Russia’s role in global energy governance and in the construction of the OPEC+ axis.

- BP, Statistical Review of World Energy  

  A reliable quantitative source for data on Venezuelan reserves and market structure.