Saxony-Anhalt, the Vote That Could Reshape Germany’s Political Balance

Saxony-Anhalt, the Vote That Could Reshape Germany’s Political Balance

By Paolo Falconio 

The polls in Saxony-Anhalt have become the focus of attention far beyond the borders of this eastern German state. The regional election taking place today, Sunday, September 6, is not merely about the composition of the next Landtag. It is also a major test for Friedrich Merz’s government and, more broadly, for the resilience of Germany’s political system in the face of the rise of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

The first significant indicator is voter turnout. By 2 p.m., 54.4% of eligible voters had already cast their ballots, compared with just 27.1% at the same time during the 2021 regional election. The near doubling of participation highlights the extent to which this election is being perceived as politically consequential.

Yet it is the prospect of a strong AfD performance that makes the Saxony-Anhalt vote potentially historic. Polls conducted before the election put the party, led in the state by Ulrich Siegmund, at around 41%, well ahead of the CDU of outgoing Minister-President Sven Schulze. If confirmed, such a result would represent one of the AfD’s most significant electoral victories and would bring the party closer to converting electoral strength into regional governing power.

The decisive issue, however, is mathematical before it is political.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the five-percent electoral threshold determines which parties participate in the proportional allocation of seats. Votes cast for parties failing to cross that threshold do not enter the seat allocation. As a result, the effective share of the vote required to secure a parliamentary majority can be significantly below 50%.

This is where the smaller parties become crucial. The ability of the SPD, Greens, BSW and other minor parties to cross the five-percent threshold could determine the entire balance of power. The more parties that remain below the threshold, the greater the proportion of valid votes effectively redistributed among those entering parliament.

In an extreme scenario, an AfD result of around 41% could therefore translate into an absolute majority of seats.

The real political contest, then, is not simply about how many votes the AfD will receive. It is also about how many votes will remain electorally “alive” through the survival of smaller parties.

If the AfD were to win an absolute majority of seats, the so-called firewall against cooperation with the far right would enter entirely new territory. Traditional parties could still refuse any cooperation with the AfD, but they would no longer be able to prevent it from forming a government through a conventional alternative coalition.

If, instead, the AfD remains below the threshold required for an outright parliamentary majority, the question of coalition-building will become decisive. The CDU, SPD, Greens, Left Party and other parliamentary forces would have to construct a majority capable of excluding the AfD from government—potentially through an unusually broad and politically difficult alliance.

Saxony-Anhalt is therefore becoming a test that extends well beyond regional politics. An AfD victory, particularly if accompanied by a parliamentary majority, would carry considerable national significance. It would demonstrate that the party is no longer merely a protest force capable of securing strong results in federal and regional elections, but a political actor capable of assuming governmental responsibility at state level.

For Friedrich Merz, this would be an uncomfortable signal. The CDU remains the principal institutional counterweight to the AfD, but a significant defeat at regional level would make it increasingly difficult to argue that the challenge posed by the far right can be contained simply through conventional electoral competition.

When the polls close at 6 p.m. and the first projections begin to emerge, the central question will therefore be much broader than a single percentage.

The issue will be whether the AfD has merely won an electoral victory—or whether Germany is entering a new political phase in which the electoral strength of the far right can finally be converted into institutional power.

That is the real significance of Saxony-Anhalt: not simply who wins, but whether Germany’s political system can still prevent the AfD’s electoral strength from becoming governing power.

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